Sunday, July 11, 2010

You say you want an Evolution.....You came to the Right Place>>>>

In The Modular World there is a TIME and a PLACE, a PURPOSE and a PRICE for everything, Knowledge builds on Knowledge, Order from Chaos...Evolution is Modular.......and the band plays on >>>>>


From Stationary to Dynamic; Micro to Macro:The difference between Linear and non- Linear systems; Multifractal Time, being in the Zone, Neural and Social Networks, the Evolution of Capitalism and the Future of Investing & Democracy.......


THE MODERN WORLD BEGAN ON 29 MAY 1919.....

when photographs of a solar eclipse, taken on the island of Principe off West Africa and at Sobral in Brazil, confirmed the truth of a new theory of the universe. It had been apparent for half a century that the Newtonian cosmology, based upon straight lines of Euclidean geometry and Galileo's notions of absolute time, was in need of serious modification. It had stood for more than two hundred years. It was the framework within which the European enlightenment, The Industrial Revolution, and the vast expansion of human knowledge, freedom and prosperity which characterized the nineteenth century, had taken place. But increasingly powerful telescopes were revealing anomalies. In particular, the motions of the planet Mercury deviated by forty-three seconds of an arc a century from its predictable behavior under Newtonian laws of physics. Why? -
In 1905, a twenty-six-year-old German Jew, Albert Einstein, then working in the Swiss patent office in Berne, Had published a paper, "On the electrodynamics of moving bodies", which became known as the Special Theory of Relativity. Einsteins observations on the way in which, in certain circumstances, lengths appeared to contract and clocks to slow down, are analogous to the effects of perspectives in painting. In fact the discovery that space and time are relative rather than absolute terms of measurement is comparable, in its effect on our perception of the world, to the first use of perspective in art, which occurred in Greece in the two deceades c. 500-480 BC.

Paul Johnson, MODERN TIMES

.
THE MODERN WORLD OF FINANCE
CAME TO AN END ON 15 SEPTEMBER 2008....



It's reality was an illusion. A month later, on October 23 2008, Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve Chairman, admitted to Congress that there was a "flaw in the model", the rational expectations theory proved wrong. Behavior is not always rational, markets don't always price things correctly. In the world of finance, the modern world is being re-examined. The World is more complex than previously thought. Value, Risk & Return are relative ...not absolute.  Life is fractal and chaotic, not linear and predictable. Blind faith in the rational man and efficient markets as the driving force proved to be misplaced. Apparently - The End of History and the Last Man - is still a work in progress .........and the band plays on.

Bob Sefcik, MAIN & WALL





"THE WORLD DID NOT END. Despite all the forebodings of disaster in the 2007-09  financial crisis, the first decade of the twenty-first century passed rather uneventfully into the second. The riots, soup kitchens, and bankruptcies predicted by many of the worlds most respected economists did not materialize-and no one any longer expects the global capitalist system to collapse, whatever that emotive word might mean.

Yet the capitalist systems survival does not mean that the precrisis faith in the wisdom of financial markets and the efficiency of free enterprise will ever again be what it was before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. A return to decent economic growth and normal financial conditions is likely by the middle of 2010 , but will this imply a return to business as usual for politicians, economists and financiers? Although globalization will continue and many parts of the world will gradually regain their prosperity of the precrisis period, the traumatic effects of 2007-09 will not be quickly forgotten. And the economic costs will linger for decades in the debts squeezing taxpayers and government budgets, the disrupted lives of the jobless, and the vanished dreams of homeowners and investors around the world.

   For what collapsed on September  15, 2008, was not just a bank or a financial system. What fell apart that day was an entire political philosophy and economic system, a way of thinking about and living in the world. The question now is what will replace the global capitalism that crumbled in the autumn of 2008."




Anatole Kaletsky, CAPITALISM 4

The




THE NEXT PHASE........Communism, Socialism, Fascism, Farcism, Idiotcy?


is About the Arrow and the Ring

ALL GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS begin with the belief that the world has changed forever. They all end with the realization that the change was not what it seemed. A cliche' among professional investors is that the four most expensive words in the English language are "This time it's different." But while it is dangerous to ignore the cyclical nature of financial markets, and of human behavior more generally, we must also recognize that the driving forces of economic and business activity - technologies, social structures and political institutions - can and do change.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

CAPITALISM 4.0 and The Modular World

New Models are needed to understand how global capitalism works and how it will evolve. The End of History and the Last Man and The Clash of Civilizations...... Are they Manichean opposites?

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

UNDERSTAND WHY EVERYONE IS ALWAYS WRONG>>>>>

The Events of 2008 exposed the fact that many of the models and assumptions used by the Investment and Academic Community were simply wrong.

Yet a year later many are still selling these same flawed models and ideas.

What does that tell you.

It's no wonder that what became apparant after the crisis is how many people did not understand what they were selling and how many people did not understand what they were buying and how many "experts" did not understand what the the hell they were talking about and still don't but keep talking.

Here are some examples : one old  - one new

 Peter Schiff was right - http://www.mainandwalltv.com/
Smackdown:Rosenberg vs. Epstein : www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/smackdown-rosenberg-vs-epstein


"It's what you learn after you know everything that counts."

    John Wooden